| Even as Tata Motors’ Nano went on display at the Auto Expo, a survey by Invest India Market Solutions (IIMS Dataworks) shows that as many as 12.8 million Indian households can be potential buyers for entry-level cars in the years to come, 1.6 million of them in 2008 alone. |
| This is more than double the entire annual car market of 1.2 million and indicates the potential market for competitively-priced entry-level cars, since this is the level at which Indian non-car owners typically enter the market in India. |
| Last week, Crisil Research said the Nano price point would see a 65 per cent increase in the number of families that can afford a car. |
| However, it forecast that at the significantly redefined threshold for car ownership in India, annual car sales have the potential to increase by 20 per cent over 2007-08. |
| India’s entry-level car market is estimated at 400,000 units a year, primarily consisting of Maruti-Suzuki’s 800 and Alto and some base models of the Hyundai Santro and Maruti’s Wagon-R, cars that are priced below Rs 3 lakh to Rs 3.5 lakh on the road. |
| The Nano, which is expected to hit the market in September/October 2008, will be priced at roughly Rs 1.3 lakh (Rs 1 lakh excluding VAT and transport costs), promising to be the world’s cheapest car. |
| Several other manufacturers — Bajaj Auto, Ford and Honda among them — are also planning entry-level car launches, but they are unlikely to be at price points as low as the Nano. |
| IIMS Dataworks, a research firm specialising in retail finance markets, conducted the survey between December 2006 and July 2007 before the Nano was displayed. |
| The Invest India Incomes and Savings Survey 2007 focused on a wide range of product categories with a car being one of them. Participants were asked to select items out of a detailed list that they wanted to own over the next 12 months. |
| The immediate potential demand for a car at 1.6 million units is based on non-car owner respondents who were asked whether they were aspiring to buy a car — any car — in the next 12 months. |
| The survey had a sample size of 1 million households, extrapolated to 215.9 million households in India with at least one earner. |
| The survey analysis suggests that the potential buyers of cars are households with an annual income of Rs 2 lakh and above that do not own a car. |
| The analysis considers all households that can afford a small car and do not currently own a single car. According to the survey, which had a sample size of nearly a million households, over 12.88 million households out of the 19 million households with annual income above Rs 2 lakh currently do not own a car (either new or second hand). |
| “In the case of households with annual income between Rs 1.5 lakh and Rs 2 lakh, there are 10 million households that own a two-wheeler, but do not currently have a car,” said Sandeep Ghosh, executive director, IIMS Dataworks, adding that it is unlikely that there will be many households with high incomes who do not own a car. |
| The survey shows nearly 55 per cent of the 1.6 million demand is expected from rural India and smaller towns, with the near-term demand from the six super metros estimated at 0.25 million. Within this, as many as 0.8 million non-car households, who were planning to buy only a two-wheeler may now aspire for a car due to the lower price point for a car like the Nano. |
Today’s release of the Tata Nano heralds a new era of car production that could affect the automotive market as profoundly as Henry Ford’s Model T did almost a hundred years ago. Tata Motors’ new “People’s car”, costs less than half the price of Chery Automobiles’ QQ3 and the Maruti 800, previously the two cheapest cars in the world.
The international automotive industry is now attempting to meet the challenge posed by Tata Motors by producing smaller, low cost cars of their own.
PriceWaterhouseCoopers has projected that over the next five years about half the growth in automobile sales will come from Russia, India, Brazil and China and most of the demand will be for small cars.
Last year Consultancy firm Ronald Berger estimated that global demand for small cars, costing less than $10,000 (£5,000) would grow by 30 per cent. Already there is considerable demand for small cars throughout Europe and Latin America where Volkswagen’s Gol, Renault’s Clio and Nissan’s Tsuru sell extremely strongly.
But Ratan Tata, chairman of Tata Motors says that while the Nano will undoubtedly compete with other small cars, the Nano is actually the first car in a whole new area of the market.
“The way I see it, this vehicle will cannibalise some of the lower-end car market and some of the higher-end motorcycle and scooter market. It will eat into both of those markets but it will also create a market of its own,” said Mr Tata yesterday. “It will expand the market by creating a niche that did not previously exist. It may well cannibalise some of the higher-end car market, but to a small extent, and probably only when people look to buy a second or third car.”
Last year, most major manufacturers announced their intention to build low cost cars. Toyota, Volkswagen, Fiat and Peugeot are all intending to produce a car to rival Renault’s Logan. The French automaker announced production of the Logan in 1999 after the buyout of Dacia the previous year. Building the car in Romania and Russia and stripping it of complex parts and luxuries, Renault managed to keep costs low and the result proved a huge hit. Now in an effort to produce cars that cost less than $5,000, the major manufacturers are placing pressure on parts suppliers to cut their costs and will rely on subsidiary companies to design and produce their bottom end vehicles.
General Motors aims to use its Korean subsidiary Daewoo to design a car that will retail at around $7,000. Chrysler has been producing cars with Chinese marquee Chery to tap into the burgeoning Chinese market. Toyota is also working on a low cost car which is expected to be launched in emerging markets such as India by next year. But with the Nano going on sale in India later this year with an initial production run of 250,000 units a year, Tata has a huge head start on its rivals in the race for smaller, cheaper cars.
The five cheapest cars in the world
1. Nano. Produced by Tata Motors in India. Price: $2,500 (£1,250)
2. QQ3. Produced by Chery Automobiles in China Price: $5,000 (£2,500)
3. M800. Produced by Suzuki-Maruti in India. Price: $5,200 (£2,600)
4. Merrie Star. Produced by Geely Automobiles in China. Price: $5,500 (£2,750)
5. S-RV mini SUV. Produced by Geely Automobiles in China. Price: $5,780 (£2,890)



